Scientific Alliance, Cambridge, England:
Climatic changes – whatever their cause – will produce winners and losers in the animal and plant kingdoms. Humankind can choose to protect some of these, for a variety of motives. But changes are not all in one direction: different weather patterns can encourage previously exotic species to flourish in areas where they were never previously seen. A current example is egrets, which are becoming established in parts of southern England (although not yet common, as a recent correspondent to the Times put it ‘Egrets, we’ve had a few, but then again, too few to mention’). These graceful and attractive birds are welcomed by many people, and future generations may well lament their loss in this country if average temperatures drop. Others may see them as an unwelcome non-native species; it is all a matter of perception.
A second lesson we can usefully draw from the paper in Science is that models, while having a role to play, should be treated with caution. In the example of Swiss mountain flora, projections went from one extreme (total habitat loss) to the other (retention of essentially all habitats) simply by going from a 16 square kilometres to 25 square metres as the grid size for analysis). From this it is possible to draw some useful conclusions based on defined scenarios, in particular that a certain average temperature rise would still allow a range of microclimates to flourish.
In the vastly more complex field of Global Circulation Models, used to project climate change, the option of reducing the grid scale is not available at present, as even the most powerful current supercomputers can only deal with grids of hundreds of kilometres. But even as computing power develops and allows finer resolution, the model outputs depend on input assumptions.
Just because we cannot conduct controlled experiments on global weather systems should not mean that we can equate model outputs with hard evidence. Models allow us to do ‘what if’ thought experiments, and can guide our thinking about hypotheses. But we should never fall into the trap of believing they are necessarily valid.
When reality intrudes in the form of inconvenient observations which do not conform to expectations, that should generate deeper thought and possible model revision. Instead, important evidence on tropospheric warming patterns is apparently ignored, while observations which support projections – such as ice loss around the Antarctic peninsula, and evidence of retreat of a limited number of Himalayan glaciers – is heavily promoted. This is not the proper way to do science. We need more researchers willing to tackle some of the difficult issues with open minds, both for biodiversity studies and on climate change.
Read the whole article: http://www.gaia-technology.com/sa/newsletters/newsletters.cfm
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